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Financial forecasting

 Financial forecasting helps commissioners and providers with financial planning.

The forecast out-turn is a forecast of the spend for each practice for the current financial year, calculated using the expected profile of expenditure for England.

Calculating the forecast out-turn (FO)

Calculation

The FO calculation assumes that each month's expenditure for a practice is in line with the national trend for proportionate spend. This means it's assumed that a practice's cumulative spend to date is the percentage of total spend defined by the national trend. The percentages used are updated each year to reflect the latest trend information.

The FO formula for an existing practice is:

(Cumulative actual cost x 100) ÷ cumulative proportionate spend figure

The FO will not be shown for the first 2 months of the financial year (relating to April and May dispensing) due to the volatility of forecasting over the beginning of the year. The first month that this will be shown, for each financial year, will be for June dispensing.

The profile received in July 2022 will be used to calculate forecast out-turns for 2022 to 2023 prescriptions. 

The profile:

  • excludes drugs costs met centrally
  • includes practice, out of hours, and community nurse prescribing
  • is subject to change

The method used to calculate the forecast of primary care prescribing expenditure:

  • considers monthly expenditure data from the last five years
  • removes the effect of policies (reductions due to PPRS and Category M) from last year's expenditure
  • looks at the effect of the number of dispensing days, the position of the month in the year and the year of expenditure

This is collated to predict the monthly expenditure for this year.

The percentage is then applied to data from the monthly Prescribing Monitoring Document.

Revision to the in-year forecast of primary care prescribing expenditure

The profile for 2022 to 2023 is subject to change and is based on the best information available at the time. The profiles will be revised accordingly as further information becomes available. 

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) receive a number of queries about our data that we're unable to answer, for example, the treatment of price concessions.

These queries should be directed to those responsible for the data collection or the relevant SICBL policy contact in the NHS.

Forecast out-turn 2022 to 2023

Reviewed and updated 23 August 2022.

Please note that NHSBSA reporting uses monthly forecasts rounded to two decimal places and may not correspond to the SICBL Prescribing Model spreadsheet which includes figures with greater precision.

Month

Forecast Profile

Cumulative Profile

April 2022

8.48% 8.48%

May 2022

8.99% 17.47%

June 2022

7.60% 25.07%

July 2022

8.05% 33.12%

August 2022

8.18% 41.30%

September 2022

8.43% 49.73%

October 2022

8.51% 58.24%

November 2022

8.48% 66.72%

December 2022

8.83% 75.55%

January 2023

8.16% 83.71%

February 2023

7.51% 91.22%

March 2023

8.78% 100%

Total

100.00%

 

Forecast template

Produced by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), the forecast template is intended to support PCOs with their primary care drug spend planning. The output doesn’t state the position of ourselves or DHSC.

View the amended forecast template 2022 to 2023 (Excel: 61KB)

​​The template uses 5 years of historic data to calculate a forecast spend for each month of the current financial year, taking into consideration:     

  • the number of dispensing days
  • and the month in the year (seasonality)

It can also make adjustments for any policies/local initiatives that will affect prescribing spend.

The template allows organisations to input their own historical data and policy changes/local initiatives.

This forecasting methodology uses similar background data as the forecast out-turn provided in the Prescribing Monitoring Documents, however the forecasts are based upon local data rather than national level profiles applied to local data.

SICBL Prescribing Model Full Write Up (Word: 908KB)

SICBL Prescribing Model Overview (Word: 36KB)

Dispensing days

View the number of dispensing days by financial year (Excel: 12KB)

It includes the number of dispensing days per month for the current and the previous three financial years.

Dispensing days excludes Sundays and bank holidays.

National average discount percentage

The National Average Discount Percentage is used to calculate actual cost shown in NHS Prescription Services prescribing and financial reports.

It is calculated by: the sum of all discounts ÷ the sum of all basic price x 100.

2022 to 2023

Used for Reports in National Average Discount Percentage
Sep 22 6.53
Aug 22 6.55
Jul 22 6.50
Jun 22 6.45
May 22 6.45
Apr 22 6.43

2021 to 2022

Used for Reports in National Average Discount Percentage
Mar 22 6.48
Feb 22 6.38

Jan 22

6.45
Dec 21 6.65
Nov 21 6.73
Oct 21 6.81
Sep 21 6.77
Aug 21 6.67
Jul 21 6.75
Jun 21 6.88
May 21 6.82
Apr 21 6.86

2020 to 2021

Used for Reports in National Average Discount Percentage
Mar 21 6.95
Feb 21 6.86
Jan 21 6.92
Dec 20 7.00
Nov 20 6.98
Oct 20 7.17
Sep 20 7.14
Aug 20 7.02
Jul 20 7.11

Jun 20

7.10
May 20 7.06
Apr 20 7.04

2019 to 2020

Used for Reports in National Average Discount Percentage
Mar 20 7.11
Feb 20 6.92
Jan 20 7.02
Dec 19 7.05
Nov 19 7.07
Oct 19 7.14
Sep 19 7.15
Aug 19 7.16
Jul 19 7.04
Jun 19 7.07
May 19 7.13
Apr 19 7.09

2018 to 2019

Used for Reports in National Average Discount Percentage
Mar 19 7.09

Feb 19

7.14
Jan 19 7.19
Dec 18 7.18
Nov 18 7.23
Oct 18 7.31
Sep 18 7.20
Aug 18 7.22
Jul 18 7.13
Jun 18 7.22
May 18 7.19
Apr 18 7.26

2017 to 2018

Used for Reports in

National Average Discount Percentage

Mar 18 7.18
Feb 18 7.31
Jan 18 7.33
Dec 17 7.37
Nov 17 7.52
Oct 17 7.43
Sept 17 7.37
Aug 17 7.47
Jul 17 7.48
Jun 17 7.38
May 17 7.30

Apr 17

7.42

2016 to 2017

Used for Reports in

National Average Discount Percentage

Mar 17

7.28

Feb 17

7.33

Jan 17

7.42

Dec 16

7.37

Nov 16

7.44

Oct 16

7.39

Sep 16

7.35

Aug 16

7.34

Jul 16

7.34

Jun 16

7.42

May 16

7.45

Apr 16

7.46

2015 to 2016

Used for Reports in

National Average Discount Percentage

Mar 16

7.43

Feb 16

7.46

Jan 16

7.64

Dec 15

7.54

Nov 15

7.63

Oct 15

7.54

Sep 15

7.48

Aug 15

7.56

Jul 15

7.52

Jun 15

7.48

May 15

7.51

Apr 15

7.52

2014 to 2015

Used for Reports in

National Average Discount Percentage

Mar 15

7.43

Feb 15

7.51

Jan 15

7.70

Dec 14

7.62

Nov 14

7.77

Oct 14

7.56

Sep 14

7.53

Aug 14

7.58

Jul 14

7.52

Jun 14

7.65

May 14

7.58

Apr 14

7.66