Data Services

Financial forecasting

Financial forecasting helps commissioners and providers with financial planning.

The forecast out-turn is a forecast of the spend for each practice for the current financial year, calculated using the expected profile of expenditure for England.

Calculating the forecast out-turn (FO)

Calculation

The FO calculation assumes that each month's expenditure for a practice is in line with the national trend for proportionate spend. This means it's assumed that a practice's cumulative spend to date is the percentage of total spend defined by the national trend. The percentages used are updated each year to reflect the latest trend information.

The FO formula for an existing practice is:

(Cumulative actual cost x 100) ÷ cumulative proportionate spend figure

The FO will not be shown for the first 2 months of the financial year (relating to April and May dispensing) due to the volatility of forecasting over the beginning of the year. The first month that this will be shown, for each financial year, will be for June dispensing.

The profile received in July 2025 will be used to calculate forecast out-turns for 2025 to 2026 prescriptions. 

The profile:

  • excludes drugs costs met centrally
  • includes practice, out of hours, and community nurse prescribing
  • is subject to change

The method used to calculate the forecast of primary care prescribing expenditure:

  • considers monthly expenditure data from the last five years
  • removes the effect of policies (reductions due to PPRS and Category M) from last year's expenditure
  • looks at the effect of the number of dispensing days, the position of the month in the year and the year of expenditure

This is collated to predict the monthly expenditure for this year.

The percentage is then applied to data from the monthly Prescribing Monitoring Document.

Revision to the in-year forecast of primary care prescribing expenditure

The profile for 2025 to 2026 is subject to change and is based on the best information available at the time. The profiles will be revised accordingly as further information becomes available. 

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) receive a number of queries about our data that we're unable to answer, for example, the treatment of price concessions.

These queries should be directed to those responsible for the data collection or the relevant SICBL policy contact in the NHS.

Forecast out-turn 2025 to 2026

NHSBSA reporting uses monthly forecasts rounded to two decimal places and may not correspond to the SICBL Prescribing Model spreadsheet which includes figures with greater precision.

MonthForecast ProfileCumulative Profile
April 20257.77%7.77%
May 20258.20%15.97%
June 20258.04%24.01%
July 20258.54%32.55%
August 20257.77%40.32%
September 20258.53%48.85%
October 20259.26%58.11%
November 20258.13%66.24%
December 20258.95%75.19%
January 20268.71%83.90%
February 20267.69%91.59%
March 20268.41%100%
Total100%Not applicable

Forecast out-turns for previous years

Forecast out-turn 2025-26 (Word: 14.4KB)Forecast out-turn 2024-25 - Updated (Word: 15KBForecast out-turn 2024-25 (Word: 15KB)Forecast outturn 2023-24 (Word: 15KB)Forecast outturn 2022-23 (Word: 14KB)Forecast outturn 2021-22 - Updated (Word: 16KB)Forecast outturn 2021-22 (Word: 20KB)Forecast outturn 2020-21 Revised January 21(Word: 24KB)Forecast outturn 2020-21 (Word: 14KB)Forecast turnout 2019-20 update (Word: 20KB) Forecast turnout September 2019 (Word: 17KB)Forecast turnout April 2019 (Word: 25KB)Forecast turnout April 2018 (Word: 18KB)Forecast turnout April 2017 (Word: 18KB)Forecast turnout November 2016 (Word: 18KB)Forecast turnout April 2016 (Word: 18KB)Forecast turnout November 2015 (Word: 18KB)Forecast turnout April 2015 (Word: 47KB)Forecast turnout December 2014 (Word: 46KB)Forecast turnout October 2014 (Word: 45KB)Forecast turnout April 2014 (Word: 44KB)Forecast turnout December 2013 (Word: 45KB)Forecast turnout November 2013 (Word: 44KB)Forecast turnout April 2013 (Word: 44KB)Forecast turnout August 2012 (Word: 44KB)Forecast turnout April 2012 (Word: 44KB)Forecast turnout August 2011 (Word: 43KB)Forecast turnout April 2011 (Word: 42KB)Forecast turnout September 2010 (Word: 42KB)Forecast turnout April 2010 (Word: 39KB)

Forecast template

Produced by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), the forecast template is intended to support PCOs with their primary care drug spend planning. The output doesn’t state the position of ourselves or DHSC.

View the forecast template 2025 to 2026 (Excel: 77.8KB)

​​The template uses 5 years of historic data to calculate a forecast spend for each month of the current financial year, taking into consideration:  

  • the number of dispensing days
  • and the month in the year (seasonality)

It can also make adjustments for any policies and local initiatives that will affect prescribing spend.

The template allows organisations to input their own historical data and policy changes and local initiatives.

This forecasting methodology uses similar background data as the forecast out-turn provided in the Prescribing Monitoring Documents, however the forecasts are based upon local data rather than national level profiles applied to local data.

SICBL Prescribing Model Full Write Up (Word: 908KB)SICBL Prescribing Model Overview (Word: 36KB)

Dispensing days

View the number of dispensing days by financial year (Excel: 7.10KB)

It includes the number of dispensing days per month for the current, future and the previous three financial years.

Dispensing days excludes Sundays and bank holidays.

National average discount percentage

Prior to April 2024, the National Average Discount Percentage was used to calculate Actual Cost shown in NHS Prescription Services prescribing and financial reports.

It is calculated by: the sum of all discounts ÷ the sum of all basic price x 100.

From April 2024 onwards, the National Average Discount Percentage (NADP) will no longer be used to calculate the Actual Cost, shown in NHS Prescription Services prescribing and financial reports, however, the NADP will continue to be published for forecasting purposes.

2025 to 2026

Used for Reports inNational Average Discount Percentage
March 20264.64
February 20264.68
January 20264.79
December 20255.09
November 20255.24
October 20255.42
September 20255.69
August 20255.54
July 20255.49
June 20255.74
May 20255.79
April 20255.79

2024 to 2025

Used for Reports inNational Average Discount Percentage
March 20255.87
February 20255.89
January 20255.89
December 20245.93
November 20246.04
October 20246.28
September 20245.86
August 20245.56
July 20245.75
June 20245.72
May 20245.89
April 20245.94

2023 to 2024

Used for Reports inNational Average Discount Percentage
March 20245.90
February 20245.77
January 20245.73
December 20235.98
November 20236.04
October 20236.33
September 20236.49
August 20236.34
July 20236.32
June 20235.91
May 20235.83
April 20235.87

​​​​​​2022 to 2023

Used for Reports inNational Average Discount Percentage
March 20236.26
February 20236.25
January 20236.31
December 20226.51
November 20226.50
October 20226.62
September 20226.53
August 20226.55
July 20226.50
June 20226.45
May 20226.45
April 20226.43

2021 to 2022

Used for Reports inNational Average Discount Percentage
March 20226.48
February 20226.38
January 20226.45
December 20216.65
November 20216.73
October 20216.81
September 20216.77
August 20216.67
July 20216.75
June 20216.88
May 20216.82
April 20216.86

2020 to 2021

Used for Reports inNational Average Discount Percentage
March 20216.95
February 20216.86
January 20216.92
December 20207.00
November 20206.98
October 20207.17
September 20207.14
August 20207.02
July 20207.11
June 20207.10
May 20207.06
April 20207.04

2019 to 2020

Used for Reports inNational Average Discount Percentage
March 20207.11
February 20206.92
January 20207.02
December 20197.05
November 20197.07
October 20197.14
September 20197.15
August 20197.16
July 20197.04
June 20197.07
May 20197.13
April 20197.09

2018 to 2019

Used for Reports inNational Average Discount Percentage
March 20197.09
February 20197.14
January 20197.19
December 20187.18
November 20187.23
October 20187.31
September 20187.20
August 20187.22
July 20187.13
June 20187.22
May 20187.19
April 20187.26

2017 to 2018

Used for Reports inNational Average Discount Percentage
March 20187.18
February 20187.31
January 20187.33
December 20177.37
November 20177.52
October 20177.43
September 20177.37
August 20177.47
July 20177.48
June 20177.38
May 20177.30
April 20177.42

2016 to 2017

Used for Reports inNational Average Discount Percentage
March 20177.28
February 20177.33
January 20177.42
December 20167.37
November 20167.44
October 20167.39
September 20167.35
August 20167.34
July 20167.34
June 20167.42
May 20167.45
April 20167.46

2015 to 2016

Used for Reports inNational Average Discount Percentage
March 20167.43
February 20167.46
January 20167.64
December 20157.54
November 20157.63
October 20157.54
September 20157.48
August 20157.56
July 20157.52
June 20157.48
May 20157.51
April 20157.52

2014 to 2015

Used for Reports inNational Average Discount Percentage
March 20157.43
February 20157.51
January 20157.70
December 20147.62
November 20147.77
October 20147.56
September 20147.53
August 20147.58
July 20147.52
June 20147.65
May 20147.58
April 20147.66
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